Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 18.821581 21.453949 24.285516 27.553420 31.216361 35.190838 39.825208
2025-02-02 15.171629 18.803482 23.007165 28.214215 34.471585 41.728672 50.761200
2025-02-09 12.946651 16.939553 21.784071 28.060981 35.941420 45.467035 57.808668
2025-02-16 11.128657 15.290791 20.558785 27.663267 36.934000 48.553670 64.143044
2025-02-23 9.934868 14.241082 19.893749 27.782733 38.420514 52.167337 71.157974
2025-03-02 9.027327 13.450413 19.452120 28.091586 40.089528 56.022575 78.612180
2025-03-09 8.191376 12.654742 18.901125 28.154533 41.358546 59.336817 85.436645
2025-03-16 7.377283 11.799144 18.172582 27.874839 42.078469 61.876827 91.262044
2025-03-23 6.821090 11.264997 17.846556 28.118864 43.512367 65.431031 98.620521
2025-03-30 6.491131 11.040394 17.947583 28.976088 45.856522 70.358957 108.134456
2025-04-06 5.932057 10.399548 17.357578 28.727970 46.510031 72.827917 114.144747
2025-04-13 5.184358 9.382390 16.097450 27.339279 45.316872 72.463865 115.885181
2025-04-20 4.932560 9.179706 16.133910 28.024138 47.410531 77.197752 125.614710
2025-04-27 4.705875 8.999953 16.192606 28.744284 49.595205 82.172093 135.946158
2025-05-04 4.339032 8.537560 15.738149 28.571987 50.306162 84.850120 142.778135
2025-05-11 3.970076 8.036689 15.177034 28.173150 50.605031 86.864850 148.619591
2025-05-18 3.719680 7.731669 14.931622 28.292771 51.762558 90.292481 156.850536
2025-05-25 3.520209 7.504745 14.806047 28.607400 53.256490 94.318999 166.205664
2025-06-01 3.301509 7.220258 14.552819 28.671185 54.307301 97.639465 174.510060
2025-06-08 3.055089 6.857813 14.126655 28.386897 54.718067 99.882664 181.078018
2025-06-15 2.896627 6.659911 13.995453 28.634968 56.082065 103.791975 190.604037
2025-06-22 2.823441 6.633230 14.190924 29.506475 58.614421 109.814189 203.978846
2025-06-29 2.627143 6.326570 13.814041 29.254226 59.055999 112.184135 211.084365